The trend of US dollar exchange rate is stable, and there is room for gold price to fall

London gold – US dollar stable, gold price short-term pressure

The record of the Fed meeting was not as good as expected, which made the trend of the US dollar slightly stable last week. The U.S. dollar was still under pressure at the beginning of last week, affected by factors such as falling U.S. bond yields, weak U.S. economic data and cooling demand for safe haven. The dollar index hit a 27 month low of 92.12 last Tuesday. Since then, the meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday were not as dovey as expected, which disappointed some short sellers. After the minutes were released, the dollar index recorded its biggest one-day rise since March, extending to the 93.40 level on Friday. There has been speculation that, as part of its comprehensive policy assessment, the Fed will adopt an average inflation rate target and seek to boost inflation above 2% to compensate for its effect of being lower than this level for many years, or to consider curbing government bond yields. However, the minutes of the meeting only pointed out that several Fed officials believed that the strategy of the Fed’s policy at a certain point in time should be adopted It is helpful to make an amendment statement, but the minutes do not provide specific details or time points.

This week, there will be several important data, including the revised GDP of the United States in the second quarter, durable goods orders in July, and consumer confidence index in August. In addition, we will also pay attention to the remarks made by US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on the evaluation of the policy framework. As for the progress of the US economic stimulus plan and when China and the United States will evaluate the first phase agreement, attention will continue to be paid.

Gold hour chart

In terms of London gold, the chart shows that the top of gold price last week was lower than the price top at the beginning of the month, and the corresponding RSI and random index also showed a double top decline, and the 10 day average line broke the 25 balance average line, indicating the risk of gold price falling back. The current important indicator is the 25 balance moving average, which is currently at $1948.33. If the gold price is held below this area, the price of expected gold will still see pressure. More recently, we should pay attention to US $1910 first, and the next level will see us $1900. According to the gold ratio, the 50% and 61.8% correction ranges are 1869 and 1822 US dollars respectively. The resistance level is expected to be in 1952 and 1974. For larger resistance, refer to the $2000 level.

London gold forecast volatility from August 24 to August 28

Resistance level: 1952 – 1992 – 2055 – 2159

Support bits: 1919 – 1886 – 1846 – 1749

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